What is the carbon budget?
Tamlyn Duncan
In lots of climate literature and discussion youâll see reference to the carbon budget. But what actually is it? And, what does it have to do with you? In this article, weâll unpack the concept of the carbon budget, discuss why itâs important, and explain how this budget has the ability to affect your daily life.
What is the carbon budget?
Budgeting is a handy tool used by many, to ensure we are on track and can sustain our livelihoods. Whether or not you use a budget, their overall premise remains the same â an accurate budget can be used for projections to help us make decisions about our present and future behaviour based on what we know about our current situation.
Just like individuals, the earthâs system has its own carbon budget â a budget that gives us insight into the atmosphereâs threshold for carbon emissions over a period of time.
Exceeding this threshold would result in global temperatures increasing to dangerous levels. This budget therefore enables us to change action to ensure that we meet favourable projected scenarios and effectively remain within this budget to sustain ourselves. Although the carbon budget applies globally, not all countries and industries are adhering to it â some donât like the idea of budgeting at all, and others are not really taking it seriously.
Almost every country in the world has ratified the Paris Agreement, which compels governments to set nationally-determined targets targeted at limiting global warming to well below 2°C, or as close to 1.5°C as possible, compared to pre-industrial levels. These targets were established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on the basis of projections of future climate impacts associated with different amounts of global warming. These projections inform the threshold of the volume of greenhouse gases (measured in carbon dioxide equivalent) which can be emitted into the atmosphere â or in other words, our carbon budget.
The IPCCâs Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (2018), which specifically deals with impacts of 1.5°C warming versus other scenarios, gives a clear warning message that the less warming we have, the less we are exposed to the unpredictable and severe impacts of climate change. To achieve this aim, the Report found that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would have to halve by 2030 and drop to net zero by 2050. Itâs an ambitious aim, considering the amount of current emissions in the atmosphere and our reliance on fossil fuels, but it is certainly possible. It requires governments, industries, and households to collectively and continually reduce emissions and ultimately change behaviour.
One of the mechanisms which has started working to give effect to the findings of the Special Report is the Science-Based Targets Initiative (SBTi). The SBTi helps businesses align their behaviour with a 1.5ÂșC future by providing clearly-defined pathways for companies to reduce their GHG emissions. Pathway targets are considered âscience-basedâ if they are in line with what the latest climate science deems necessary to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The SBTi is one of the leading initiatives that enables the private sector to ensure a reduction of their GHG emissions and to set a net-zero target in line with a 1.5°C future.

What does the carbon budget mean for individuals?
Carbon budgets continue to be a popular approach to frame the challenge of keeping global warming to âacceptableâ levels because it gives us something tangible to visualise and work with. We need the climate budget to inform our decision-making and behaviour at a governmental, industry, and household level â otherwise we have no concept of what informs our actions to reduce emissions.
The carbon budget also has the ability to demonstrate the effect of inaction, as it utilises climate projections to determine future scenarios. The idea of what a 2ÂșC or 3°C temperature increase would look like paints a dismal picture, and in many ways, keeps us on track to avoid projected disaster scenarios. The IPCC Working Group 3âs contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, published in April 2022, states that there is still time to limit the global temperature increase below 1.5°C. However, scientists warn that the window of opportunity is rapidly closing and the situation is getting more urgent. At the launch of the Report, UN Secretary-General AntĂłnio Guterres said it was a âfile of shame, cataloguing the empty pledges that put us firmly on track towards an unlivable worldâ. According to the Emissions Gap Report 2021, which provides an overview of the difference between where GHG emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avert the worst impacts of climate change, the emissions gap still remains large. Compared to previous unconditional NDCs, collective new pledges for 2030 reduce projected emissions by only 7.5% â whereas a 30% reduction is needed for 2°C (and 55% reduction for 1.5°C). As a whole, countries are falling short of meeting their new or updated NDCs and announced pledges with current policies.
However, the carbon budget shouldnât induce fear, it should inspire behaviour change. There is a misconception that if we exceed our carbon budget, we are unequivocally doomed. Imagery and advertising of a âclimate apocalypseâ with a countdown clock springs to mind â letâs be clear that exceeding our carbon budget does not directly translate to the end of the world. However, the world it would result in would be increasingly unlivable as time goes on as warmer temperatures will bring worse impacts that threaten lives, livelihoods, and economies.

Should the worldâs carbon budget affect everyday decisions?
Absolutely.
The carbon budget can be interpreted as a broad framework under which a huge amount of climate-related decisions are made. We make decisions every day that ultimately have an effect on our climate, whether we are aware of them or not. At a global level, countries who are signatories to the Paris Agreement have an obligation to limit their carbon emissions, and can do so by setting their own carbon budgets to ensure they remain on track with their commitments.
These global carbon budgets can be further divided into national emissions budgets where countries set their own climate mitigation goals, such as the UK, who are the first country to set their own legally binding carbon budget. Governments are urged to go beyond their current Paris Agreement commitments, which if left unchanged, would result in an expected temperature rise to 3.2°C this century. Collective decision-making will impact the speed at which we will approach the carbon budgetâs threshold, which is why ensuring that future decisions, specifically in the energy sector, are made with the carbon budget in mind is absolutely key.

What can we do?
While the idea of sticking within the parameters of our carbon budget might feel like a complicated ask at the household and individual level, itâs ironically anything but complicated. The best thing you can do to ensure we stay within our carbon budget is actually quite simple â limit your greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible in your daily life.
Support businesses that align with the goal of a decarbonised future. It may seem like an indirect link but where and how you use your money has a tremendous impact on emission reductions. Some simple ways to ensure your money is put to good use on a daily basis includes investing your money in ethical pension funds and banking with organisations that ensure your money is not supporting the fossil-fuel industry.
The solutions to the climate crisis already exist, itâs just about ensuring that our actions align with our intentions. Every fraction of a degree that our Earthâs temperature increases matters, so itâs no surprise that the small actions we take each day really add up. You can be part of the solution through a variety of ways; like reducing food waste, introducing plant-based alternatives into your diet, being more mindful of energy efficiency in your home, and opting for public transport as much as possible. Once youâve reduced your carbon footprint to as low as possible, itâs appropriate to offset remaining emissions. Ecologi offers a variety of reforestation and verified carbon offsetting projects to enable you to take climate action, while supporting natural ecosystems and local communities through tree planting initiatives.
While itâs imperative that we embed emission reduction activities into our daily lives, government buy-in on the road to decarbonisation is key. Collective action is a powerful thing, and environmental activism in the climate space is one of the means in which we can ensure that our governments are paving the way for a sustainable future that does not exceed the carbon budget. Advocate for the future that is important to you and support political parties who share your vision of a decarbonised future.